The Bayesian Theorem

Bayesian Theorem

The Bayesian theorem states the following equation:where

  • is a conditional probability, also called posterior.
  • is also a conditional probability, also called the likelihood.
  • and are probabilities of observing and respectively without any given conditions, are known as the prior probability and marginal probability.

Bayesian Inference

Estimator

Suppose a fixed parameter needs to be estimated. An estimator of , written as is a function that maps the observation space to the parameter space, which is naturally a random variable.

Bias

The bias of an estimator is defined as If , then we call the estimator unbiased, otherwise it is biased.